A First Attack Assessment Model - AFAAM

Center of Aerospace Analysis; Colorado Springs, CO

A First Attack Assessment Model (AFAAM) is a one-sided stochastic model, which generates the results of a missile attack by red on blue asset target set. AFAAM was developed to support the NORAD Survivability Study. Blast and thermal damage estimates are calculated using PD Calc, a model developed by the Strategic Air Command, which is embedded in the code as a subroutine. AFAAM will execute on any machine equipped with a SIMSCRIPT II.5 compiler from PCs to VAX and SUN workstations.

The effects of EMP may be studied parametrically by specifying user input as to lethal ranges by type of equipment, hardness factor and yield of the device. A Fcookie-cutter" approach is taken; equipment within a given radius of a detonation is presumed destroyed while those outside survive.

There are two required input data streams and one optional one allowing flexibility in executing a variety of scenarios. Either or all can be varied quite readily given that the data sets have been created. These input data streams are:

  1. The attack lay down scenario.
  2. The list of assets to be evaluated (target-resources).
  3. The aircraft locations and dispersal plan (optional).

The attack scenario is based on the launch of delivery vehicles from a given geographical location to intended ground targets. During the flight, the delivery vehicle is evaluated stochastically for launch, cruise, warhead deployment, and detonation failures. An actual ground zero is computed for each successful detonation. A search is conducted to see if any targets are close enough to be damaged by the given size warhead. This search will locate aircraft in flight as well as fixed targets. Damage to targets is computed based on their distance from the actual ground zero and their relative vulnerability. The simulation ends when all warheads have been evaluated for target destruction.

There are extensive embedded diagnostics available to the user that may be used to aid the analyst in performing in-depth analysis of the model's performance.

Customer Quote: "The source code is essentially self-documenting."